Chinese dairy producers target adult nutrition as infant formula demand declines

The baby milk sector in the country is expected to see up to 3% annual decline from 2023 to 2029.

Chinese dairy companies are shifitng to adult nutrition products as falling birth rates and intense competition shrink the market for infant formula, according to GlobalData.

The baby milk sector in China is expected to see a 1–3% annual decline from 2023 to 2029, forcing producers to adapt to changing demographics and consumer needs.

Consumer Analyst Mani Bhushan Shukla of GlobalData said that international infant formula brands now face stiff competition from Chinese producers, who have improved quality and lowered costs since the 2008 melamine scandal.

"Following the 2008 Chinese melamine scandal, these domestic brands have significantly improved their operations by adopting strict quality measures and upgrading their manufacturing facilities," he said. This has led to a growing acceptance among Chinese consumers of domestic baby milk products, which are considered both nutritious and more affordable."

This shift, paired with record-low birth rates of 6.4 per 1,000 people in 2023 and a rapidly aging population, is driving both local and global dairy giants, including A2 Milk, Fonterra, and Yili, to launch products aimed at adults and seniors, said Elyn Gao, business development director, China, GlobalData.

Adult nutrition demand is rising as health-conscious Chinese consumers prioritize fitness and wellness.

"The industry’s focus on innovation and product development has also led to the introduction of new products that cater to specific dietary needs, such as vegan, keto, and paleo diets," added Shukla.

Citing a recent survey, he pointed out that 50% of Chinese have increased purchases of sports nutrition products, and 49% are buying dietary supplements more frequently. This trend aligns with the government’s Healthy China 2030 initiative, which promotes products that support energy, immunity, and digestive health. Dairy companies are responding with plant-based, low-sugar, and gluten-free options that cater to modern consumer demands.

“The focus on adult nutrition has intensified in recent years, driven by manufacturers’ growing awareness of the aging population’s needs and the increasing demand for products that enhance immune health and support bones, joints, and muscles," Shukla said.