Tariffs disrupt up to 40% of supply chain activity in 2025

Costs, demand, and sourcing strategies shift, McKinsey survey shows

Tariffs have emerged as the dominant supply chain risk in 2025, with 82% of companies reporting disruption to operations, according to McKinsey & Company.

Respondents said between 20% and 40% of baseline supply chain activity is affected.

Tariff exposure in 2025 affected an estimated 24% to 39% of activity, with cost pressures accounting for most of the variation across industries.

About 39% of respondents reported increases in supplier and material costs, whilst 30% saw weaker customer demand. Supply chains with exposure to the US were most affected, with 70% of respondents saying tariffs had a greater or equal impact on US demand compared with other markets. Consumer goods companies reported the highest exposure, accompanied by tariffs affecting 43% of activities, while chemicals companies saw the lowest impact at 23%.

In response, around 30% of companies said they are pursuing tariff-specific actions, including renegotiating with suppliers to share tariff-related costs or seeking exemptions from governments for certain products or industries.

Most mitigation strategies, however, mirror responses to previous large-scale disruptions. Among companies facing tariff pressure, 45% are increasing inventories, 39% are adopting dual-sourcing strategies, and 33% are developing nearshoring or onshoring plans.

McKinsey also noted a sharp rise in efforts to map deeper-tier supply chains. Heightened compliance requirements linked to tariffs have driven a 22 percentage-point increase in the share of companies with visibility into tier-two suppliers, reversing several years of declining transparency.