Global manufacturing growth holds steady but momentum weakens as inflation and disruptions bite
War in the Middle East, surging costs and strained supply chains weigh on global factories
Global manufacturing continued to expand in March 2026, though growth lost pace as rising input costs, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on demand and sentiment, according to the latest J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI.
The headline index eased to 51.3 in March from February’s 44-month high of 51.8, signalling continued expansion but at a slower rate.
The reading marked the eighth consecutive month above the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction.
The survey pointed to a global industrial sector under pressure from the war that erupted in the Middle East, which contributed to higher commodity prices, stretched supply chains and near-stagnant international trade flows.
Growth in manufacturing output slowed to a three-month low, with weaker expansion recorded across consumer, intermediate and investment goods. New orders also rose at a more subdued pace, reflecting softer demand in several domestic markets and sluggish global trade.
Cost pressures intensified, with input price inflation accelerating to its highest level in 44 months. At the same time, suppliers’ delivery times lengthened markedly, reaching their greatest extent in nearly three-and-a-half years — an indication of mounting bottlenecks across supply networks.
Business confidence deteriorated to a five-month low, as firms grew more cautious about the outlook amid persistent inflationary pressures and logistical constraints. Employment levels and inventories of purchases were broadly unchanged compared with the previous month.
Performance varied across regions. Whilst output continued to grow in major manufacturing hubs including the United States, the euro area, mainland China and Japan, several countries recorded outright contractions, including the United Kingdom, France, Spain and Canada. The steepest declines were observed in economies such as Kazakhstan, Romania, Mexico, Russia and Türkiye.
Despite the uneven picture, some of the largest economies saw modest improvements in output growth, with the United States and the eurozone bucking the broader slowdown trend. In contrast, growth in mainland China and Japan eased from earlier highs.
Economists warned that continued geopolitical tensions and elevated input costs could further test the resilience of global manufacturing in the months ahead, particularly if supply chain pressures persist and demand weakens further.
