Philippine FMCG makers face H2 2026 margin squeeze, says Maybank

The broker also said pressure on the Philippine peso could worsen margin contraction in the second half.

Philippine fast-moving consumer goods manufacturers face a margin squeeze in H2 2026 as higher oil and agricultural commodity prices raise input costs, according to Maybank.

The broker said the recent Middle East conflict has pushed crude oil prices up about 25% since 28 February 2026, reversing its earlier view for stable to lower raw material prices and threatening margins once the existing inventory cover of three to six months runs down.

Maybank said wheat prices are up 17% year to date, palm oil 15%, and coconut oil 6%, whilst coffee prices are down 11% and cocoa has fallen 46%. It identified Century Pacific Food, Universal Robina, and Monde Nissin as the biggest potential losers from rising raw material costs.

The broker also said pressure on the Philippine peso could worsen margin contraction in the second half, adding that FMCG margins had also weakened during wheat and crude oil spikes at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.

Beyond manufacturers, Maybank said a fuel-led inflation spike could sour consumer sentiment in the second quarter and push full-year 2026 inflation above the central bank’s 2% to 4% target range if average crude oil prices rise above $90 a barrel.

Despite the cost pressure, Maybank kept a positive stance on the sector and named Jollibee Foods and Puregold as its top picks, whilst dropping Century Pacific from that list because of the risk of margin pressure.