Year-end rebound fails to save Thailand from 0.7% manufacturing drop

Maybank maintains its 1.7% GDP growth forecast for 2026.

Thailand’s manufacturing sector returned to growth in December 2025, rising 2.5% year on year (YoY), but output still contracted 0.7% for the full year, marking a third consecutive annual decline, according to Maybank Research.

Maybank estimates Thailand’s economy expanded 1.2% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025 and 2.1% for the full year. 

The bank reiterated its 2026 GDP growth forecast of 1.7%, with growth expected to be stronger in the second half of the year, subject to stable government formation by mid-2026.

Manufacturing activity fell 0.4% in Q4 2025 amidst weak demand and earlier plant closures, whilst capacity utilisation averaged 57.6% in December, with sharp variation across sectors, including autos at 47.8%, apparel at 41% and petroleum at 94.5%, the report said.

The December rebound was driven by a 28.3% jump in electrical equipment output, led by a 95.7% surge in electrical transformers and a 31.9% rise in household appliances, although the electrical equipment cluster remained down 13% in the fourth quarter, according to Maybank.