AI demand boosts outlook for Korean memory chips

Fitch expects AI and server upgrades to lift DRAM and SSD demand in 2026, despite risks.

Korean memory chip manufacturers are set to benefit in 2026 as artificial intelligence (AI) workloads expand beyond high-bandwidth memory into broader memory segments, according to Fitch Ratings. 

Stronger server-related demand and an emerging refresh cycle for existing servers are expected to support prospects for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) and solid-state drives (SSD), even as consumer electronics demand remains weak.

Fitch Ratings said the launch of NVIDIA’s Rubin CPX graphics processing unit in September underlined the growing importance of tiered memory architectures, where DRAM and SSD chips play a larger role alongside high-bandwidth memory (HBM). This shift is likely to bolster conventional DRAM replacement demand, particularly for pandemic-era servers approaching the end of their lifecycle.

Market intelligence firm Omdia stated in October that the global DRAM market is on track to reach $200b by 2028, driven by AI adoption, server refresh cycles, and increased use of memory tiering, compared with current estimates of $120b-$130b. Fitch cautioned, however, that projections remain uncertain given the early stage of the AI investment surge.

The agency flagged risks linked to customer concentration in the HBM segment and higher sensitivity to fluctuations in AI investment. Any slowdown in AI orders could pressure margins due to the industry’s high fixed costs. US tariff policies also pose potential risks to demand.

Amongst leading producers, SK hynix has greater exposure to HBM, which Fitch estimates could make up 40% of its DRAM revenue in 2025, whilst Samsung Electronics’ more diversified operations may provide a buffer, even as its HBM exposure rises later in the decade.