Australia eyes $2.8b green iron export opening

IEEFA sees a 5.5 million-tonne regional gap by 2030.

Australia could open green iron export markets worth $2.8b a year as steelmakers in Asia struggle to secure enough renewable power to meet rising low-carbon demand, according to an Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) briefing note.

The note said corporate emissions and green purchasing targets tied to steel are creating a near-term opportunity for Australian developers, with many deadlines set for 2030.

It estimated regional green steel demand at 5.5 million tonnes a year by 2030, with about 20% linked to steel-specific commitments in automotive, wind, shipping, and data centres, whilst the rest is tied to broader net-zero and Scope 3 goals.

IEEFA said the strongest export opportunity lies with China, South Korea, and Japan, which are major buyers of Australian iron ore and metallurgical coal but may lack sufficient renewable energy capacity to meet expected demand.

That constraint could open the door for Australian green iron exports worth an estimated $2b annually.

The analysis focused on four demand areas to 2030: automotive, shipping, wind turbines, and data centres.

It said Asia’s large vehicle manufacturing base, concentrated regional shipbuilding, steel-intensive wind manufacturing, and AI-driven data centre growth could all support demand for greener steel inputs.

The note also pointed to early market signals, saying Glencore and other traders have already established offtake agreements for hot briquetted iron. Still, it cautioned that projected demand exceeds supply amid uncertainty over policy, market shifts, corporate targets, and the pace at which producers move away from fossil-hydrogen mixes.

Australian developers and governments will need to move quickly to secure offtake agreements and provide clearer signals on viable projects and locations if they want to capture the opportunity and launch a new export industry, the note said.