Global manufacturing growth remains lacklustre as 2025 draws to close

Output eases slightly as new orders stagnate and employment levels stabilise

The global manufacturing sector ended 2025 on a subdued note, with output growth easing and both new order flows and employment levels unchanged, according to the latest industry survey.

The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell slightly to 50.4 in December, down from 50.5 in November but above the neutral mark of 50.0 for the fifth consecutive month. Whilst two components of the index pointed to expansion, two signalled no change and stocks of purchases declined.

National PMI readings signalled expansions in 18 out of the 29 nations for which December data were available. India, Vietnam and Greece were the highest-ranked countries. Growth was also registered in the United States, mainland China and the United Kingdom. Japan and Germany were amongst the larger industrial nations to record readings consistent with decline.

Manufacturing output rose for the fifth successive month in December. Expansions were seen across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors, the fourth time in the past five months that concurrent growth has been registered. Rates of increase were broadly similar across all three industries, representing mild growth decelerations in the first two and a return to expansion at investment goods producers.

December saw no change in the level of new business placed with global manufacturers, halting a four-month sequence of mild expansion. The latest stagnation was centred on the intermediate goods industry as both the consumer and investment goods categories registered expansions. Amongst the larger industrial nations, China, India and the UK signalled increases, whereas the US, Japan and the eurozone saw new business decline.

Part of the downturn in total new work reflected the ongoing decline in international trade volumes. New export business decreased for the ninth month in a row and at a slightly quicker pace than in November. All three of the subsectors covered by the survey saw new export orders contract.

Employment trends stabilise

Staffing levels were unchanged in December, as job growth in nations such as the US, Japan and India offset cuts in China, the eurozone and the UK. There were signs that current capacity was becoming more consistent with current requirements, as backlogs of work decreased only slightly and to the least marked extent during the current three-and-a-half-year sequence of decline.

On the prices front, rates of inflation in input costs and output charges picked up in December. That said, increases in both price measures remained below the respective long-run averages.

The outlook for the global manufacturing sector remained mildly positive in December. Business optimism held steady at November's five-month high despite remaining below the survey average for the twenty-first successive month.

Maia Crook, Global Economist at J.P.Morgan, said: "The J.P. Morgan global manufacturing output PMI moved down 0.3 points to 50.9 in December, a level consistent with modest but still positive production growth. Two consecutive monthly declines in the output and new orders indices suggest a loss of momentum into year-end, though encouragingly, the future output PMI signals an improvement in business confidence in the fourth quarter. A 1.6-point jump in the investment goods PMI was also encouraging, suggesting a pickup in business equipment spending last month after stalling in November."

The data suggest the global manufacturing sector enters 2026 on an uncertain footing, with growth momentum modest and international trade flows remaining weak. However, pockets of strength in key emerging markets and an uptick in business confidence provide some grounds for cautious optimism in the months ahead.