China's semiconductor investment to reach $46b annually by 2030

Thanks to the large market for microchips, and high demand for generative AI, amongst others.

Chinese investment in semiconductor is projected to reach $46b a year by 2030 from $43b in 2025.

According to Goldman Sachs Research, this represents an annual increase of between 2% to 6% relative to previous estimates.

“We expect the investment focus to shift more towards memory and advanced node technologies, and to industry leaders who will be able to continuously expand and upgrade to more advanced technologies,” said Allen Chang, head of the Greater China Technology team in Goldman Sachs Research.

The projected increase in spending will be supported by a large domestic market for microchips, high demand for generative AI, and technology improvements to the local ecosystem, writes Allen Chang, head of the Greater China Technology team in Goldman Sachs Research.

In 2024, Chinese spending on semiconductors rose by 19%, prompting concerns of a subsequent slowdown. However, Chang’s team expects leading Chinese companies will continue to invest in an effort to secure market share and keep pace with technological innovation.

“We see considerable scope for semiconductor capacity growth for Chinese suppliers, especially in high-end logic and memory markets,” Chang said.